Delhi Poll 2013

The assembly elections 2013 finished without much surprises except the emergence of AAP as a power in Delhi. The baby AAP managed to finish as the second largest party immediately after the BJP.

The formation of a government is still a question without answer in Delhi till now. Both BJP and the Congress offered support for AAP to form a government and AAP is still in thinking mode about the offers.

Many people interpreted the victory of AAP as emergence of the middle class as a force to replace the conventional political system. AAP came up with a middle class friendly manifesto and it managed to earn huge backing in the urban crowd of Delhi though some of their claims are looking extremely impossible due to legal and other reasons. The emergence of AAP shall be attributed to the reality of emergence of the middle class as a united force. It may cause serious troubles  to the minority appraisal  and Hinduthwa based strategies of different political parties. Even the left parties lost their base in the emergence of AAP. The already insignificant left may be thrown out of the political map of India in no time if the Delhi model is prevailing in the coming days.

Who actually lost in the game? Congress or BJP? the question is very subjective as we can have different perspectives to assess the situation. BJP was all set for a win in Delhi and they are shocked to see the outcome. Congress surely expected a defeat but may be ended up far below than their worst nightmare.

AAP is indeed a spoiler. It took a major chunk of votes from Congress and damaged it at the same time ensured that BJP is not having a sweep. The AAP themselves failed to estimate the impact they caused and it is indicating the huge expectation the people have on them. The television channels and the social media engineering helped them in the cause. The huge expectation puts a lot of pressure on the baby shoulders of AAP. They have zero administrative experience and their working plans are raw and very conceptual. It may be tough to execute in a practical way. The different could be same as an advertisement and the actual product. They have two actual risks waiting for them.

1) If they are hesitating to form a government, they may not be able to perform similarly in a re-poll especially if its conducted along with the Lok Sabha elections, as people may think differently at that time and may expect stability.

2) If they manages to form a government with external support of Congress or BJP they may have to compromise the plans or they may find it tough to execute some of the unrealistic offers they kept in their manifesto. It may destroy the backing generated by the huge expectation of the people followed by their mistrust on other political parties.

Lets check the vote share of BJP, AAP and Congress. The newcomer AAP bagged 30% of the votes polled and they managed 28 seats. BJP, the single largest party gathered 33% of votes and enjoys 31 seats. The big time losers Congress managed to gather 8 seats. The interesting fact is that they still managed 25% of votes. Now lets go to the interesting reality . If AAP was not there as a spoiler Congress could have managed a return to power in Delhi! The emergence of AAP took the major chunk of voters from Congress and we cannot deny that BJP is also affected. Lets assume that one third of the 30% AAP votes are from BJP and that will make the BJP vote share 43%  It is also true that AAP took the votes of the left and other third front parties lets give 2% to them and the rest is from the congress and that will end up in 43% for congress. The point is the vote share of congress and BJP may not be huge. The vote share may not be easily converted to seats. The BJP may still manage to emerge as the single largest party. But in a Lok Sabha point of view it may create completely different figures.

As per the current results BJP may easily bag 7 out of 8 of the Delhi Lok Sabha seats if an elected is conducted today. The figure may change dramatically if the support of AAP is changing in the coming days due to the above described reasons. Let’s wait and see the AAP strategy and the outcome of it in the coming days.